PremiumTelegram
EN
Sections

Accounts and Premium are not available in your country; every forecast is open. New forecasts every day — in our Telegram channel.

Ligue 1, round 11 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)

Nice — Paris Saint-Germain

☆ Save match

Model prediction for 21 November

Nice12%
Draw20%
Paris Saint-Germain68%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Paris Saint-Germain are clear favourites: 68% against 12% for the opponent, draw 20%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.9.

Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 60%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Paris Saint-Germain are about 1.1 goals per match stronger.
  • Paris Saint-Germain are 159 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • League table: Nice — No. 8, 14 pts; Paris Saint-Germain — No. 1, 20 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
  • Paris Saint-Germain: 5 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Nice 1 win, Paris Saint-Germain 3, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Nice — Paris Saint-Germain What is xG?1.0–2.2
Nice not to lose32%
Paris Saint-Germain not to lose88%
No draw80%
Both teams to score: yes60%
Both teams to score: no40%
Total over 2.563%
Total under 2.537%

181 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Nice
  • Nice goals
  • Paris Saint-Germain goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatNiceParis Saint-Germain
Goals scored per match1.43.6
Goals conceded per match1.50.9
xG per match1.362.98
Opponents’ xG1.681.44
Shots12.521.2
On target4.210.2
Corners5.84.8
Cards2.40.7
Possession, %5464

Averages per match: Nice — the last 10, Paris Saint-Germain — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Nice

  • 30.10Rennes5:2
  • 23.10away · Brest2:1
  • 18.10away · Lyon1:2
  • 11.10Strasbourg2:1
  • 20.09Lille2:1

Paris Saint-Germain

  • 03.11away · Villarreal6:0
  • 30.10away · Le Havre5:1
  • 26.10Lyon2:0
  • 20.10Barcelona4:2
  • 17.10away · Strasbourg3:1

Head to head

  • 21.03.2026Nice — Paris Saint-Germain0:4
  • 01.11.2025Paris Saint-Germain — Nice1:0
  • 25.04.2025Paris Saint-Germain — Nice1:3
  • 06.10.2024Nice — Paris Saint-Germain1:1
  • 15.05.2024Nice — Paris Saint-Germain1:2

Full record: 21 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Champions LeagueParis Saint-Germain962121–10+1120
2, Champions LeagueLille953112–6+618
7Monaco943212–10+215
8Nice942313–12+114
9Lens941416–13+313

Season 2026/27

Full table

Ligue 1 on the same day

  • LensToulousepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
  • LilleLyonpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
  • MonacoAuxerrepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.0
  • StrasbourgBrestpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 68% will not happen in roughly 32 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →