UEFA Europa League, round 4 · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
Levski Sofia — Jagiellonia Białystok
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Levski Sofia are slightly stronger: 44% against 30%, draw 26%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Levski Sofia — No. 24, 1 pt; Jagiellonia Białystok — No. 17, 3 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Levski Sofia — Jagiellonia Białystok What is xG? | 1.6–1.3 | |
| Levski Sofia not to lose | 70% | |
| Jagiellonia Białystok not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Levski Sofia
- Levski Sofia goals
- Jagiellonia Białystok goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 15.10Ararat Armenia3:1
- 10.10Górnik Zabrze1:3
- 20.09Legia Warszawa1:3
- 16.09away · Olympiacos1:2
- 11.09away · Wisła Kraków0:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Milan | 2 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 17, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 18, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | OFI Crete | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 23, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Real Sociedad | 2 | 0 | -1 | 1 |
| 24, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Levski Sofia | 2 | 0 | -1 | 1 |
| 25 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 2 | 0 | -1 | 1 |
Europa League on the same day
- MilanFerencvárospreliminary791471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
- Real SociedadLyonpreliminary4126331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Sparta PragueAFC Bournemouthpreliminary1722612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
- RennesOlympiacospreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- AnderlechtSalzburgpreliminary4226311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Crystal PalaceHoffenheimpreliminary6221161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- NEC NijmegenOmonia Nicosiapreliminary6022181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- LillestrømViktoria Plzeňpreliminary2825472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →