UEFA Europa League, round 3 · Thursday, 22 October, MSK
Lillestrøm — Real Sociedad
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Real Sociedad are clear favourites: 47% against 27% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Real Sociedad are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lillestrøm — Real Sociedad What is xG? | 1.2–1.6 | |
| Lillestrøm not to lose | 53% | |
| Real Sociedad not to lose | 73% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Lillestrøm
- Lillestrøm goals
- Real Sociedad goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 11.10Deportivo A Coruña3:2
- 20.09away · Valencia3:2
- 17.09AFC Bournemouth1:2
- 13.09Atlético Madrid0:3
- 07.09away · Elche3:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Anderlecht | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 22, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Lillestrøm | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 23, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 24, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
Europa League on the same day
- JuventusRennespreliminary6919121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- FerencvárosTorreensepreliminary5923181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Union St.GilloiseHapoel Beer Shevapreliminary801471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.5
- Dinamo ZagrebNEC Nijmegenpreliminary4826271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Sturm GrazMarseillepreliminary3927351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Lech PoznańSunderlandpreliminary6023181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- OFI CreteBayer Leverkusenpreliminary1420662The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
- Ararat ArmeniaAZ Alkmaarpreliminary2325522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →