English Premier League, round 10 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Manchester United — Aston Villa
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
Manchester United are clear favourites: 49% against 25% for the opponent, draw 26%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 64%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Manchester United are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- Manchester United are 53 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Manchester United — No. 17, 7 pts; Aston Villa — No. 10, 12 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Manchester United 3 wins, Aston Villa 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Manchester United — Aston Villa What is xG? | 1.8–1.3 | |
| Manchester United not to lose | 75% | |
| Aston Villa not to lose | 51% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 64% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 36% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Manchester United | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.9 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| xG per match | 1.26 | 1.73 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.78 | 1.60 |
| Shots | 14.8 | 15.9 |
| On target | 4.4 | 5.7 |
| Corners | 5.4 | 5.4 |
| Cards | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| Possession, % | 50 | 46 |
Form
- 03.11Roma3:2
- 31.10away · Chelsea0:2
- 25.10AFC Bournemouth0:3
- 21.10away · Como1:4
- 18.10away · Leeds United1:1
- 03.11away · Barcelona0:3
- 31.10Fulham1:1
- 28.10away · AFC Bournemouth0:3
- 24.10Manchester City2:1
- 21.10Viking3:1
Head to head
- 15.03.2026Manchester United — Aston Villa3:1
- 21.12.2025Aston Villa — Manchester United2:1
- 25.05.2025Manchester United — Aston Villa2:0
- 06.10.2024Aston Villa — Manchester United0:0
- 11.02.2024Aston Villa — Manchester United1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tottenham Hotspur | 9 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Hull City | 9 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 16 | Coventry City | 9 | 3 | -7 | 9 |
| 17 | Manchester United | 9 | 1 | -5 | 7 |
| 18, Relegation | Crystal Palace | 9 | 2 | -12 | 7 |
Premier League on the same day
- 4927231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- 1725582The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1
- 2426502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.1
- 2629452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →