French Ligue 2, round 13 · Friday, 20 November, 22:00 (UTC+3)

Metz — Boulogne

Model prediction for 20 November

Metz45%

Draw29%

Boulogne27%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Metz are slightly stronger: 45% against 27%, draw 29%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 51%.

Why

By the strength ratings Metz are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Metz are 195 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Metz — No. 10, 14 pts; Boulogne — No. 14, 10 pts. A gap of 4 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Metz — Boulogne What is xG?		1.4–1.1
Metz not to lose		73%
Boulogne not to lose		55%
No draw		71%
Both teams to score: yes		51%
Both teams to score: no		49%
Total over 2.5		44%
Total under 2.5		56%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Metz
Metz goals
Boulogne goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Metz	Boulogne
Goals scored per match	1.5	0.7
Goals conceded per match	1.5	0.8
xG per match	1.47	1.19
Opponents’ xG	1.61	1.14
Shots	14.4	12.4
On target	4.8	4.3
Corners	4.9	4.3
Cards	1.7	2.5
Possession, %	53	44

Averages per match: Metz — the last 10, Boulogne — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Metz

30.10Pau1:3
23.10away · Dunkerque1:1
17.10Sochaux3:2
12.10away · Dijon2:4
19.09Saint-Étienne2:2

Boulogne

30.10away · Laval0:1
26.10Reims1:1
16.10away · Grenoble2:0
09.10away · Sochaux1:1
19.09Nantes1:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
9	Guingamp	11	4	2	5	16–15	+1	14
10	Metz	11	3	5	3	17–17	0	14
11	Rodez	11	4	1	6	17–22	-5	13
13	Sochaux	11	2	5	4	8–14	-6	11
14	Boulogne	11	1	7	3	7–8	-1	10
15	Nantes	11	2	3	6	12–18	-6	9

Season 2026/27

Full table

Ligue 2 on the same day

22:00
Annecy FCClermont Footpreliminary
552619
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
22:00
GuingampRodezpreliminary
492526
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.0
22:00
NancyDijonpreliminary
492724
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
22:00
Red StarPaupreliminary
452728
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →