French Ligue 2, round 13 · Friday, 20 November, (UTC+3)
Red Star — Pau
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 20 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Red Star are slightly stronger: 45% against 28%, draw 27%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Red Star are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Red Star are 75 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Red Star — No. 6, 17 pts; Pau — No. 5, 20 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Red Star: 3 defeats in a row; Pau: 5 wins in a row.
- Last 4 meetings: Red Star 1 win, Pau 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Red Star — Pau What is xG? | 1.6–1.2 | |
| Red Star not to lose | 72% | |
| Pau not to lose | 55% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Red Star | Pau |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| xG per match | 1.81 | 1.56 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.20 | 1.17 |
| Shots | 14.0 | 13.7 |
| On target | 5.1 | 4.1 |
| Corners | 6.2 | 4.3 |
| Cards | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Possession, % | 55 | 48 |
Form
- 02.11Nancy1:4
- 26.10away · Montpellier1:2
- 17.10Saint-Étienne0:1
- 10.10away · Clermont Foot3:2
- 19.09away · Guingamp3:1
Head to head
- 06.02.2026Red Star — Pau0:3
- 12.09.2025Pau — Red Star0:3
- 17.01.2025Red Star — Pau1:3
- 22.11.2024Pau — Red Star4:1
Table
Ligue 2 on the same day
- Annecy FCClermont Footpreliminary5526191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- GuingampRodezpreliminary4925261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.0
- MetzBoulognepreliminary4529271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- NancyDijonpreliminary4927241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →