UEFA Europa League, round 4 · Thursday, 5 November, 20:45 (UTC+3)

Milan — Ferencváros

Model prediction for 5 November

Milan79%

Draw14%

Ferencváros7%

Model estimate at 01:01 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Milan are clear favourites: 79% against 7% for the opponent, draw 14%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.5 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.

Over 2.5 goals — 68%, both teams to score — 49%.

Why

Milan's starting XI is worth €219m, Ferencváros's €10m (Transfermarkt).
By the strength ratings Milan are about 1.1 goals per match stronger.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Milan — No. 16, 3 pts; Ferencváros — No. 7, 6 pts. A gap of 3 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Milan — Ferencváros What is xG?		2.8–0.7
Milan not to lose		93%
Ferencváros not to lose		21%
No draw		86%
Both teams to score: yes		49%
Both teams to score: no		51%
Total over 2.5		68%
Total under 2.5		32%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Milan
Milan goals
Ferencváros goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Form

Milan

15.10away · Salzburg4:0
11.10away · Sassuolo1:1
20.09Lecce3:0
16.09Benfica0:2
12.09away · Lazio2:2

Ferencváros

15.10Viktoria Plzeň2:1
17.09away · Celtic3:1
18.03away · Braga0:4
12.03Braga2:0
26.02Ludogorets Razgrad2:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
6, Straight to the round of 16	Omonia Nicosia	2	2	0	4–0	+4	6
7, Straight to the round of 16	Ferencváros	2	2	0	5–2	+3	6
8, Straight to the round of 16	Lyon	2	2	0	5–3	+2	6
15, Knockout play-off for the round of 16	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	6–3	+3	3
16, Knockout play-off for the round of 16	Milan	2	1	1	4–2	+2	3
17, Knockout play-off for the round of 16	Jagiellonia Białystok	2	1	1	4–3	+1	3

Season 2026/27

Full table

Europa League on the same day

20:45
Real SociedadLyonpreliminary
412633
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
20:45
Sparta PragueAFC Bournemouthpreliminary
172261
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
20:45
RennesOlympiacospreliminary
482527
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
20:45
AnderlechtSalzburgpreliminary
422631
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
20:45
Crystal PalaceHoffenheimpreliminary
622116
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
20:45
NEC NijmegenOmonia Nicosiapreliminary
602218
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
20:45
LillestrømViktoria Plzeňpreliminary
282547
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
20:45
Levski SofiaJagiellonia Białystokpreliminary
442630
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 79% will not happen in roughly 21 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →