FA Cup · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Newport County — Walsall
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Evenly matched: Newport County 39%, Walsall 34%, draw 27%.
The model expects few goals: 2.7 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Newport County are 62 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Newport County — Walsall What is xG? | 1.4–1.3 | |
| Newport County not to lose | 66% | |
| Walsall not to lose | 61% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Newport County
- Newport County goals
- Walsall goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Newport County | Walsall |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| xG per match | 0.72 | 1.32 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.58 | 1.61 |
| Shots | 12.3 | 11.8 |
| On target | 5.7 | 4.4 |
| Corners | 5.7 | 3.0 |
| Cards | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| Possession, % | 45 | 30 |
Form
- 08.08away · AFC Wimbledon1:1
- 07.12away · Boreham Wood0:3
- 01.11Gillingham2:2
- 12.08Millwall0:1
- 02.11Peterborough United2:4
- 25.08Leyton Orient0:0
- 06.08away · Bristol City1:0
- 11.01away · Norwich City1:5
- 07.12away · Gateshead FC2:0
- 02.11away · Eastleigh3:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
FA Cup on the same day
- 3727371The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- 4925261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 3927351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- 6022171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- 2626482The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:32.8
- 4027341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- 2826462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- 4826261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →