UEFA Europa League, round 4 · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
NEC Nijmegen — Omonia Nicosia
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
NEC Nijmegen are clear favourites: 60% against 18% for the opponent, draw 22%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- NEC Nijmegen's starting XI is worth €20m, Omonia Nicosia's €6m (Transfermarkt).
- By the strength ratings NEC Nijmegen are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: NEC Nijmegen — No. 27, 1 pt; Omonia Nicosia — No. 6, 6 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
- NEC Nijmegen: winless in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen — Omonia Nicosia What is xG? | 2.0–1.0 | |
| NEC Nijmegen not to lose | 82% | |
| Omonia Nicosia not to lose | 40% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 58% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 42% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap NEC Nijmegen
- NEC Nijmegen goals
- Omonia Nicosia goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 15.10Levski Sofia1:1
- 10.10away · Ajax1:1
- 20.09Go Ahead Eagles1:1
- 17.09away · Juventus0:5
- 12.09away · Cambuur0:3
- 15.10away · NK Celje3:0
- 16.09Celta Vigo1:0
- 26.02away · Rijeka1:3
- 19.02Rijeka0:1
- 18.12Raków Częstochowa0:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Straight to the round of 16 | AFC Bournemouth | 2 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 6, Straight to the round of 16 | Omonia Nicosia | 2 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 7, Straight to the round of 16 | Ferencváros | 2 | 2 | +3 | 6 |
| 26 | Sturm Graz | 2 | 0 | -3 | 1 |
| 27 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 0 | -5 | 1 |
| 28 | Anderlecht | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
Europa League on the same day
- MilanFerencvárospreliminary791471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
- Real SociedadLyonpreliminary4126331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Sparta PragueAFC Bournemouthpreliminary1722612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
- RennesOlympiacospreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- AnderlechtSalzburgpreliminary4226311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Crystal PalaceHoffenheimpreliminary6221161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- LillestrømViktoria Plzeňpreliminary2825472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
- Levski SofiaJagiellonia Białystokpreliminary4426301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →