UEFA Europa League, round 3 · Thursday, 22 October, MSK
NK Celje — Salzburg
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: NK Celje 35%, Salzburg 39%, draw 27%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Salzburg are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: NK Celje — Salzburg What is xG? | 1.4–1.4 | |
| NK Celje not to lose | 61% | |
| Salzburg not to lose | 65% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap NK Celje
- NK Celje goals
- Salzburg goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 16.09away · Bayer Leverkusen0:2
- 19.03away · AEK Athens2:0
- 12.03AEK Athens0:4
- 26.02Drita3:2
- 19.02away · Drita3:2
- 10.10away · Grazer AK0:0
- 20.09Sturm Graz3:0
- 17.09away · Levski Sofia1:0
- 11.09away · Ried1:1
- 02.09Rapid Wien5:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 15, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Salzburg | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 16, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Sunderland | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 30 | Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | NK Celje | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | Ararat Armenia | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 |
Europa League on the same day
- JuventusRennespreliminary6919121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- FerencvárosTorreensepreliminary5923181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Union St.GilloiseHapoel Beer Shevapreliminary801471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
- Dinamo ZagrebNEC Nijmegenpreliminary4826271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Sturm GrazMarseillepreliminary3927351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Lech PoznańSunderlandpreliminary5923181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- OFI CreteBayer Leverkusenpreliminary1420662The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
- Ararat ArmeniaAZ Alkmaarpreliminary2425522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →