Super League Greece, round 11 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)
Olympiacos — Iraklis
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Olympiacos are clear favourites: 87% against 3% for the opponent, draw 10%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 30%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Olympiacos are about 1.7 goals per match stronger.
- Olympiacos are 310 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Olympiacos — No. 2, 22 pts; Iraklis — No. 9, 10 pts. A gap of 12 pts.
- Olympiacos: 5 wins in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Olympiacos — Iraklis What is xG? | 2.5–0.4 | |
| Olympiacos not to lose | 97% | |
| Iraklis not to lose | 13% | |
| No draw | 90% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 30% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 70% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Olympiacos
- Olympiacos goals
- Iraklis goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Olympiacos | Iraklis |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| xG per match | 1.40 | 0.70 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.70 | 1.60 |
| Shots | 17.9 | 9.4 |
| On target | 4.9 | 2.2 |
| Corners | 7.2 | 2.8 |
| Cards | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| Possession, % | 57 | 43 |
Form
- 31.10away · Kifisia FC3:2
- 25.10Kalamata5:0
- 22.10Sparta Prague1:0
- 18.10away · Panetolikos2:0
- 15.10away · Marseille1:0
- 02.11away · Kalamata1:1
- 24.10Kifisia FC2:3
- 18.10away · PAOK Thessaloniki1:2
- 11.10Levadiakos2:0
- 19.09away · Aris Thessaloniki0:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 9 | 8 | +16 | 24 |
| 2 | Olympiacos | 9 | 7 | +11 | 22 |
| 3 | PAOK Thessaloniki | 9 | 6 | +6 | 18 |
| 8 | Kalamata | 9 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | Iraklis | 9 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
| 10 | Panetolikos | 9 | 3 | -9 | 9 |
Greek Super League on the same day
- LevadiakosAtromitospreliminary4330281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- PanetolikosNFC Volospreliminary4132271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- PanathinaikosOFI Cretepreliminary801561The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- PAOK ThessalonikiKifisia FCpreliminary7219101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 87% will not happen in roughly 13 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →