Super League Greece, round 11 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)
Panathinaikos — OFI Crete
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Panathinaikos are clear favourites: 80% against 6% for the opponent, draw 15%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 46%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Panathinaikos are about 1.2 goals per match stronger.
- Panathinaikos are 265 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Panathinaikos — No. 1, 24 pts; OFI Crete — No. 5, 16 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
- Panathinaikos: 5 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Panathinaikos 4 wins, OFI Crete 0, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Panathinaikos — OFI Crete What is xG? | 2.4–0.7 | |
| Panathinaikos not to lose | 94% | |
| OFI Crete not to lose | 20% | |
| No draw | 85% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 46% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 54% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 42% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Panathinaikos
- Panathinaikos goals
- OFI Crete goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Panathinaikos | OFI Crete |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| xG per match | 2.56 | 1.08 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.67 | 1.59 |
| Shots | 20.2 | 8.8 |
| On target | 6.8 | 3.1 |
| Corners | 7.8 | 4.2 |
| Cards | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Possession, % | 63 | 46 |
Form
- 01.11AEK Athens2:0
- 25.10away · NFC Volos1:0
- 22.10away · Kairat Almaty5:1
- 18.10Asteras Tripolis5:1
- 15.10Borac Banja Luka2:1
- 01.11away · Panetolikos1:0
- 25.10PAOK Thessaloniki2:1
- 22.10Bayer Leverkusen0:2
- 18.10away · Kalamata3:4
- 15.10away · Rennes1:2
Head to head
- 04.03.2026Panathinaikos — OFI Crete4:1
- 22.02.2026OFI Crete — Panathinaikos0:2
- 01.02.2025Panathinaikos — OFI Crete3:2
- 20.10.2024OFI Crete — Panathinaikos0:1
- 03.03.2024OFI Crete — Panathinaikos2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 9 | 8 | +16 | 24 |
| 2 | Olympiacos | 9 | 7 | +11 | 22 |
| 4 | AEK Athens | 8 | 5 | +16 | 17 |
| 5 | OFI Crete | 9 | 5 | +2 | 16 |
| 6 | Aris Thessaloniki | 9 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
Greek Super League on the same day
- LevadiakosAtromitospreliminary4330281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- PanetolikosNFC Volospreliminary4132271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- OlympiacosIraklispreliminary871031The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- PAOK ThessalonikiKifisia FCpreliminary7219101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 80% will not happen in roughly 20 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →