UEFA Europa League, round 3 · Thursday, 22 October, MSK
Omonia Nicosia — Benfica
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Benfica are clear favourites: 76% against 8% for the opponent, draw 15%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Benfica are about 1.5 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Omonia Nicosia — No. 14, 3 pts; Benfica — No. 8, 3 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Omonia Nicosia — Benfica What is xG? | 0.8–2.6 | |
| Omonia Nicosia not to lose | 24% | |
| Benfica not to lose | 92% | |
| No draw | 85% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 65% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 35% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Omonia Nicosia
- Omonia Nicosia goals
- Benfica goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 16.09Celta Vigo1:0
- 26.02away · Rijeka1:3
- 19.02Rijeka0:1
- 18.12Raków Częstochowa0:1
- 11.12away · Rapid Wien1:0
- 11.10Vitória de Guimarães2:0
- 20.09away · FC Porto1:3
- 16.09away · Milan2:0
- 13.09Gil Vicente3:1
- 09.09away · Moreirense4:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7, Straight to the round of 16 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 8, Straight to the round of 16 | Benfica | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 9, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | OFI Crete | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 13, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Torreense | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 14, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 15, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Salzburg | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Europa League on the same day
- JuventusRennespreliminary6919121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- FerencvárosTorreensepreliminary5923181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Union St.GilloiseHapoel Beer Shevapreliminary801471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
- Dinamo ZagrebNEC Nijmegenpreliminary4826271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Sturm GrazMarseillepreliminary3927351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Lech PoznańSunderlandpreliminary5923181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- OFI CreteBayer Leverkusenpreliminary1420662The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
- Ararat ArmeniaAZ Alkmaarpreliminary2425522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 76% will not happen in roughly 24 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →