FA Cup · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Oxford United — Stevenage
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Oxford United are clear favourites: 51% against 24% for the opponent, draw 25%.
The model expects few goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Oxford United are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- Oxford United are 171 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Oxford United — Stevenage What is xG? | 1.7–1.1 | |
| Oxford United not to lose | 76% | |
| Stevenage not to lose | 49% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Oxford United
- Oxford United goals
- Stevenage goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Oxford United | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| xG per match | 1.44 | 0.52 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.16 | 1.16 |
| Shots | 11.9 | 10.3 |
| On target | 3.3 | 3.7 |
| Corners | 4.3 | 5.3 |
| Cards | 1.6 | 3.3 |
| Possession, % | 41 | 46 |
Form
- 08.08away · Leyton Orient0:2
- 02.05away · Millwall0:2
- 25.04Sheffield Wednesday4:1
- 21.04Wrexham0:1
- 18.04away · Derby County0:1
- 25.08Reading0:3
- 07.08away · Wycombe Wanderers2:1
- 01.11Chesterfield0:1
- 12.08away · Charlton Athletic1:3
- 30.11Mansfield Town0:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
FA Cup on the same day
- 3727371The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- 4925261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 3927351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- 6022171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- 2626482The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:32.8
- 4027341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- 2826462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- 4826261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →