Liga MX (Mexico), round 17 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)
Pachuca — Toluca
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Toluca are clear favourites: 46% against 25% for the opponent, draw 28%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 64%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Toluca are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
- In recent matches the betting market rated Toluca higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.
Facts
- League table: Pachuca — No. 12, 19 pts; Toluca — No. 5, 24 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
- Toluca: unbeaten in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Pachuca 2 wins, Toluca 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Pachuca — Toluca What is xG? | 1.3–1.7 | |
| Pachuca not to lose | 54% | |
| Toluca not to lose | 75% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 64% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 36% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
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- Handicap Pachuca
- Pachuca goals
- Toluca goals
- Corners and cards
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Pachuca | Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| xG per match | 1.35 | 2.06 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.74 | 1.35 |
| Shots | 17.3 | 19.1 |
| On target | 5.5 | 6.4 |
| Corners | 5.3 | 6.7 |
| Cards | 3.2 | 2.1 |
| Possession, % | 48 | 58 |
Form
- 01.11away · América2:2
- 25.10away · León1:1
- 22.10Tijuana2:2
- 18.10Atlético de San Luis1:1
- 10.10away · Tigres2:3
Head to head
- 11.05.2026Pachuca — Toluca2:0
- 04.05.2026Toluca — Pachuca0:1
- 23.03.2026Pachuca — Toluca1:1
- 27.10.2025Toluca — Pachuca2:2
- 30.03.2025Toluca — Pachuca3:2
Table
Liga MX on the same day
- Santos LagunaLeónpreliminary3928331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.1
- PumasMonterreypreliminary3429372The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
- TigresAméricapreliminary3028412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →