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Liga MX (Mexico), round 17 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)

Pumas — Monterrey

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Model prediction for 22 November

Pumas34%
Draw29%
Monterrey37%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Evenly matched: Pumas 34%, Monterrey 37%, draw 29%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 62%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
  • Pumas are 119 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • League table: Pumas — No. 10, 20 pts; Monterrey — No. 9, 21 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
  • Last 5 meetings: Pumas 1 win, Monterrey 3, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Pumas — Monterrey What is xG?1.4–1.5
Pumas not to lose63%
Monterrey not to lose66%
No draw71%
Both teams to score: yes62%
Both teams to score: no38%
Total over 2.556%
Total under 2.544%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Pumas
  • Pumas goals
  • Monterrey goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatPumasMonterrey
Goals scored per match1.41.4
Goals conceded per match1.81.6
xG per match1.241.44
Opponents’ xG1.731.22
Shots11.315.9
On target3.95.4
Corners5.17.5
Cards1.92.3
Possession, %4359

Averages per match: Pumas — the last 10, Monterrey — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Pumas

  • 31.10away · Puebla2:1
  • 25.10Tigres1:1
  • 22.10away · Santos Laguna0:2
  • 17.10away · Atlante2:1
  • 12.10Cruz Azul3:3

Monterrey

  • 01.11Tijuana3:3
  • 25.10Chivas0:1
  • 22.10away · Puebla4:1
  • 19.10Pachuca2:1
  • 11.10away · América1:1

Head to head

  • 23.02.2026Pumas — Monterrey2:0
  • 19.10.2025Monterrey — Pumas1:1
  • 17.03.2025Pumas — Monterrey1:3
  • 01.12.2024Pumas — Monterrey3:5
  • 29.11.2024Monterrey — Pumas1:0

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026 (Apertura)
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
8, Liguilla (playoffs)Santos Laguna1571721–20+122
9Monterrey1463526–21+521
10Pumas1555522–24-220
11Querétaro1462618–21-320

Season 2026 (Apertura)

Full table

Liga MX on the same day

  • Santos LagunaLeónpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.1
  • PachucaTolucapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
  • TigresAméricapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →