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Liga MX (Mexico), round 17 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)

Santos Laguna — León

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Model prediction for 22 November

Santos Laguna39%
Draw28%
León33%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Evenly matched: Santos Laguna 39%, León 33%, draw 28%.

3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 65%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
  • Santos Laguna are 54 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • League table: Santos Laguna — No. 8, 22 pts; León — No. 7, 22 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Santos Laguna 2 wins, León 2, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Santos Laguna — León What is xG?1.6–1.5
Santos Laguna not to lose67%
León not to lose61%
No draw72%
Both teams to score: yes65%
Both teams to score: no35%
Total over 2.559%
Total under 2.541%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Santos Laguna
  • Santos Laguna goals
  • León goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatSantos LagunaLeón
Goals scored per match1.71.5
Goals conceded per match0.91.5
xG per match1.841.64
Opponents’ xG1.711.49
Shots15.213.9
On target5.15.4
Corners7.63.9
Cards2.32.4
Possession, %5449

Averages per match: Santos Laguna — the last 10, León — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Santos Laguna

  • 02.11Necaxa1:0
  • 26.10away · Tijuana1:4
  • 22.10Pumas2:0
  • 18.10Querétaro5:0
  • 12.10away · Atlético de San Luis2:1

León

  • 02.11away · Cruz Azul1:2
  • 25.10Toluca1:1
  • 21.10away · Tigres2:0
  • 18.10América3:5
  • 10.10away · Puebla1:1

Head to head

  • 22.02.2026León — Santos Laguna2:1
  • 19.10.2025Santos Laguna — León2:0
  • 10.03.2025Santos Laguna — León2:1
  • 25.08.2024León — Santos Laguna1:1
  • 28.01.2024León — Santos Laguna3:2

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026 (Apertura)
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
6, Liguilla (playoffs)Tijuana1557325–21+422
7, Liguilla (playoffs)León1564522–20+222
8, Liguilla (playoffs)Santos Laguna1571721–20+122
9Monterrey1463526–21+521

Season 2026 (Apertura)

Full table

Liga MX on the same day

  • PachucaTolucapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
  • PumasMonterreypreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
  • TigresAméricapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →