UEFA Europa League, round 4 · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
Real Sociedad — Lyon
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Real Sociedad are slightly stronger: 41% against 33%, draw 26%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Real Sociedad — No. 23, 1 pt; Lyon — No. 8, 6 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Real Sociedad — Lyon What is xG? | 1.5–1.3 | |
| Real Sociedad not to lose | 67% | |
| Lyon not to lose | 59% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Real Sociedad
- Real Sociedad goals
- Lyon goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 15.10away · Union St.Gilloise1:1
- 11.10Deportivo A Coruña3:2
- 20.09away · Valencia3:2
- 17.09AFC Bournemouth1:2
- 13.09Atlético Madrid0:3
- 15.10Crystal Palace3:2
- 09.10away · Lens1:2
- 19.09Rennes4:0
- 16.09away · Anderlecht2:1
- 12.09away · Paris FC0:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7, Straight to the round of 16 | Ferencváros | 2 | 2 | +3 | 6 |
| 8, Straight to the round of 16 | Lyon | 2 | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 9, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Olympiacos | 2 | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 22, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Lillestrøm | 2 | 0 | -1 | 1 |
| 23, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Real Sociedad | 2 | 0 | -1 | 1 |
| 24, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Levski Sofia | 2 | 0 | -1 | 1 |
Europa League on the same day
- MilanFerencvárospreliminary791471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
- Sparta PragueAFC Bournemouthpreliminary1722612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
- RennesOlympiacospreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- AnderlechtSalzburgpreliminary4226311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Crystal PalaceHoffenheimpreliminary6221161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- NEC NijmegenOmonia Nicosiapreliminary6022181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- LillestrømViktoria Plzeňpreliminary2825472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
- Levski SofiaJagiellonia Białystokpreliminary4426301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →