UEFA Europa League, round 4 · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
Sturm Graz — NK Celje
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Sturm Graz are clear favourites: 59% against 19% for the opponent, draw 23%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- Sturm Graz's starting XI is worth €16m, NK Celje's €5m (Transfermarkt).
- By the strength ratings Sturm Graz are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Sturm Graz — No. 26, 1 pt; NK Celje — No. 35, 0 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sturm Graz — NK Celje What is xG? | 2.0–1.0 | |
| Sturm Graz not to lose | 81% | |
| NK Celje not to lose | 41% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Sturm Graz
- Sturm Graz goals
- NK Celje goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 15.10away · AFC Bournemouth0:3
- 10.10away · Austria Wien2:0
- 20.09away · Salzburg0:3
- 16.09Rennes0:0
- 13.09LASK2:1
- 15.10Omonia Nicosia0:3
- 16.09away · Bayer Leverkusen0:2
- 19.03away · AEK Athens2:0
- 12.03AEK Athens0:4
- 26.02Drita3:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 2 | 0 | -1 | 1 |
| 26 | Sturm Graz | 2 | 0 | -3 | 1 |
| 27 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 0 | -5 | 1 |
| 34 | Celtic | 2 | 0 | -5 | 0 |
| 35 | NK Celje | 2 | 0 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Lech Poznań | 2 | 0 | -8 | 0 |
Europa League on the same day
- MilanFerencvárospreliminary791471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
- Real SociedadLyonpreliminary4126331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Sparta PragueAFC Bournemouthpreliminary1722612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
- RennesOlympiacospreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- AnderlechtSalzburgpreliminary4226311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Crystal PalaceHoffenheimpreliminary6221161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- NEC NijmegenOmonia Nicosiapreliminary6022181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- LillestrømViktoria Plzeňpreliminary2825472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →