UEFA Europa League, round 4 · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
Torreense — Ararat Armenia
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Torreense are clear favourites: 59% against 19% for the opponent, draw 23%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- Torreense's starting XI is worth €5m, Ararat Armenia's €1m (Transfermarkt).
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Torreense — No. 19, 3 pts; Ararat Armenia — No. 33, 0 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Torreense — Ararat Armenia What is xG? | 1.9–1.0 | |
| Torreense not to lose | 81% | |
| Ararat Armenia not to lose | 41% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Torreense
- Torreense goals
- Ararat Armenia goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 15.10Sunderland1:2
- 17.09away · Lillestrøm2:1
- 24.05away · Sporting CP2:1
- 23.04AD Fafe2:0
- 04.02away · AD Fafe1:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | OFI Crete | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 19, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Torreense | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 20, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 32 | Marseille | 2 | 0 | -4 | 0 |
| 33 | Ararat Armenia | 2 | 0 | -5 | 0 |
| 34 | Celtic | 2 | 0 | -5 | 0 |
Europa League on the same day
- MilanFerencvárospreliminary791471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
- Real SociedadLyonpreliminary4126331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Sparta PragueAFC Bournemouthpreliminary1722612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
- RennesOlympiacospreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- AnderlechtSalzburgpreliminary4226311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Crystal PalaceHoffenheimpreliminary6221161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- NEC NijmegenOmonia Nicosiapreliminary6022181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- LillestrømViktoria Plzeňpreliminary2825472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →