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Ligue 1, round 8 · Sunday, 25 October, (UTC+3) · Stadium de Toulouse

Toulouse — Troyes

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Model prediction and result

0:0Missed
Toulouse61%
Draw22%
Troyes17%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, Toulouse to win (61%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 61% fails in about 39 matches out of 100 on average.

Toulouse are clear favourites: 61% against 17% for the opponent, draw 22%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 52%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Toulouse are about 1.2 goals per match stronger.
  • Toulouse are 307 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Toulouse: unbeaten in 4; Troyes: 5 defeats in a row.
  • Last 2 meetings: Toulouse 2 wins, Troyes 0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Toulouse — Troyes What is xG?2.0–0.9
Toulouse not to lose83%
Troyes not to lose39%
No draw78%
Both teams to score: yes52%
Both teams to score: no48%
Total over 2.555%
Total under 2.545%

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  • Handicap Toulouse
  • Toulouse goals
  • Troyes goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 25′Rafik Messali · Toulouse
  2. 25′Aron Dønnum · Toulouse
  3. 36′Michel Diaz · Troyes
  4. 39′Cristian Cásseres · Toulouse
  5. 40′Timothé Nkada · Troyes
  6. 83′Niko Sigur · Toulouse
  7. 88′Jens Berthel Askou · Toulouse
  8. 89′Alexis Vossah · Toulouse
  9. 93′Mark McKenzie · Toulouse
Substitutions (7)
  1. 58′Alexis Vossah ↔ Rafik Messali · Toulouse
  2. 67′Ilyas Azizi ↔ Aron Dønnum · Toulouse
  3. 73′Jérémy Le Douaron ↔ Renaud Ripart · Troyes
  4. 73′Kandet Diawara ↔ Timothé Nkada · Troyes
  5. 84′Santiago Hidalgo ↔ Jacen Russell-Rowe · Toulouse
  6. 84′Niklas Schmidt ↔ Thomas Jørgensen · Toulouse
  7. 90′Iron Gomis ↔ Mouhamed Diop · Troyes

Match statistics

ToulouseTroyes
  • 0.84Expected goals (xG)0.39
  • 63Possession, %37
  • 7Shots8
  • 3On target0
  • 1Big chances0
  • 4Corners2
  • 19Fouls14
  • 1Offsides0
  • 6Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Toulouse

  1. GKGuillaume Restes6.9
  2. DFMark McKenzie7.4
  3. DFChrist Tapé6.6
  4. DFNiko Sigur6.6
  5. DFRasmus Nicolaisen (C)7.5
  6. MFThomas Jørgensen84′6.3
  7. MFRafik Messali58′6.7
  8. MFCristian Cásseres7.4
  9. MFAron Dønnum67′7.2
  10. FWJacen Russell-Rowe84′5.9
  11. FWCasper Tengstedt6.4
Came on (4)
  1. FWIlyas Azizi23′6.0
  2. MFAlexis Vossah32′6.2
  3. MFSantiago Hidalgo6′
  4. MFNiklas Schmidt6′

Troyes

  1. GKHillel Konaté7.7
  2. DFAdrien Monfray (C)7.5
  3. DFMichel Diaz7.0
  4. DFLucas Maronnier7.3
  5. DFPaolo Gozzi7.1
  6. MFMouhamed Diop89′7.1
  7. MFDermane Karim7.3
  8. MFAntoine Mille6.7
  9. FWTimothé Nkada73′6.6
  10. FWRenaud Ripart73′5.9
  11. FWMerwan Ifnaou6.8
Came on (3)
  1. MFIron Gomis1′
  2. MFJérémy Le Douaron17′6.4
  3. FWKandet Diawara17′6.1

Form

Toulouse

  • 16.10away · Le Mans3:0
  • 10.10away · Monaco2:2
  • 19.09Le Havre3:2
  • 12.09away · Lorient2:2
  • 03.09Lille0:1

Troyes

  • 17.10Lens1:3
  • 11.10Marseille0:2
  • 19.09away · Angers0:2
  • 13.09away · Lille0:2
  • 06.09Strasbourg2:6

Head to head

  • 01.02.2023Toulouse — Troyes4:1
  • 14.08.2022Troyes — Toulouse0:3

Full record: 5 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
11Lorient93337–8-112
12Toulouse924312–13-110
13Strasbourg931517–19-210
15Angers92259–17-88
16, Relegation play-offTroyes92257–16-98
17, RelegationLe Mans914411–18-77

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

  • TroyesLe Mans31 October · Ligue 1
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.0
  • MarseilleToulouse1 November · Ligue 1
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.1

Ligue 1 on the same day

  • MonacoLille
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
  • AngersLorient
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:1.2.6
  • AuxerreLe Mans
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.3.0
  • MarseilleLe Havre
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 4:3. Model's score: 2:0.3.1
  • RennesStrasbourg
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →