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Brazilian Serie B, round 36 · Saturday, 31 October, (UTC+3) · Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga

Vila Nova — Juventude

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Model prediction and result

2:2Missed
Vila Nova37%
Draw30%
Juventude33%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:2: the model's most likely outcome, Vila Nova to win (37%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 37% fails in about 63 matches out of 100 on average.

Evenly matched: Vila Nova 37%, Juventude 33%, draw 30%.

2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).

Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 50%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Facts

  • Juventude: unbeaten in 5.
  • Last 3 meetings: Vila Nova 2 wins, Juventude 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Vila Nova — Juventude What is xG?1.2–1.1
Vila Nova not to lose67%
Juventude not to lose63%
No draw70%
Both teams to score: yes50%
Both teams to score: no50%
Total over 2.545%
Total under 2.555%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Handicap Vila Nova
  • Vila Nova goals
  • Juventude goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 42′Marcos Paulo · Juventude
  2. 46′Aderlan · Juventude
  3. 54′Igor Cariús · Vila Nova
  4. 55′Janderson · Vila Nova1:0
  5. 62′João Vieira · Vila Nova
  6. 72′Messias · Juventude
  7. 76′Lucas Alves · Juventude1:1
  8. 83′Dudu · Vila Nova2:1
  9. 86′Alisson Safira · Juventude2:2
Substitutions (8)
  1. 46′Lucas Mineiro ↔ Luis Amarilla · Juventude
  2. 68′Lucas Alves ↔ Marcos Paulo · Juventude
  3. 68′Juan Christian ↔ Marcos Paulo MP · Juventude
  4. 73′Nathan Camargo ↔ Igor Cariús · Vila Nova
  5. 80′Dellatorre ↔ André Luis · Vila Nova
  6. 80′Dodô ↔ Marquinhos · Vila Nova
  7. 87′Patryck ↔ Aderlan · Juventude
  8. 88′Titi ↔ Alisson Safira · Juventude

Match statistics

Vila NovaJuventude
  • 1.33Expected goals (xG)1.32
  • 60Possession, %40
  • 20Shots12
  • 7On target9
  • 2Big chances4
  • 9Corners2
  • 18Fouls21
  • 3Offsides1
  • 1Yellow cards2
  • 1Red cards1

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Vila Nova

  1. GKHelton Leite7.7
  2. DFIgor Cariús73′7.1
  3. DFDouglas Mendes6.3
  4. DFJonathan Costa6.8
  5. DFHigor7.4
  6. MFMarquinhos (C)80′6.2
  7. MFJoão Vieira62′6.2
  8. MFDudu8.3
  9. FWEverton6.5
  10. FWJanderson8.1
  11. FWAndré Luis80′6.6
Came on (3)
  1. MFDodô10′6.6
  2. MFNathan Camargo17′6.8
  3. FWDellatorre10′5.8

Juventude

  1. GKJandrei6.7
  2. DFMessias72′5.9
  3. DFRodrigo Sam (C)7.0
  4. DFMarcos Paulo68′7.0
  5. MFGabriel Pires7.4
  6. MFDiogo Barbosa6.3
  7. MFAderlan87′7.1
  8. MFRaí7.2
  9. FWAlisson Safira88′7.6
  10. FWMarcos Paulo MP68′7.2
  11. FWLuis Amarilla45′6.3
Came on (5)
  1. FWJuan Christian22′7.4
  2. MFLucas Mineiro45′6.9
  3. DFPatryck3′
  4. DFTiti2′
  5. FWLucas Alves22′8.0

Form

Vila Nova

  • 24.10away · São Bernardo2:3
  • 19.10Novorizontino2:2
  • 11.10away · Náutico2:0
  • 08.10Cuiabá0:0
  • 04.10away · Botafogo SP1:0

Juventude

  • 27.10Náutico4:0
  • 17.10away · Ceará2:2
  • 11.10São Bernardo2:2
  • 07.10away · Ponte Preta2:0
  • 03.10Operário-PR3:0

Head to head

  • 11.07.2026Juventude — Vila Nova1:0
  • 08.08.2023Juventude — Vila Nova0:2
  • 01.05.2023Vila Nova — Juventude1:0

Full record: 4 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, PromotionNovorizontino361910764–31+3367
2, PromotionJuventude361811747–25+2265
3, Promotion play-offsVila Nova36189952–38+1463
4, Promotion play-offsFortaleza361614643–31+1262

Season 2026

Full table

Next matches

  • Vila NovaCriciúma8 November · Brasileirao Serie B
    XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.2
  • CuiabáJuventude8 November · Brasileirao Serie B
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2

Brasileirao Serie B on the same day

  • CriciúmaPonte Preta
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.7
  • Botafogo SPSport Recife
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →