EFL Championship, round 9 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Vicarage Road
Watford — Burnley
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
0:4Missed
In short
Final score 0:4: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (30%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 30% fails in about 70 matches out of 100 on average.
Evenly matched: Watford 34%, Burnley 36%, draw 30%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Burnley are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Watford — Burnley What is xG? | 1.2–1.2 | |
| Watford not to lose | 64% | |
| Burnley not to lose | 66% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 42% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 58% |
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Form
- 18.09away · Bristol City0:1
- 12.09Stoke City1:2
- 08.09Preston North End2:1
- 05.09away · West Bromwich Albion0:1
- 01.09away · Swansea City0:2
- 19.09Derby County1:1
- 12.09away · Swansea City1:3
- 08.09away · Wrexham1:1
- 05.09Bristol City1:2
- 02.09Middlesbrough1:1
Head to head
- 18.04.2025Watford — Burnley1:2
- 21.12.2024Burnley — Watford2:1
- 14.02.2023Burnley — Watford1:1
- 12.08.2022Watford — Burnley1:0
- 30.04.2022Watford — Burnley1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | -4 | 8 |
| 22, Relegation | Watford | 10 | 2 | -11 | 8 |
| 23, Relegation | Derby County | 9 | 1 | -7 | 6 |
Next matches
- Cardiff CityWatford13 October · Championship4728261The most likely outcome came true: 15:1Final score 5:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- BurnleyCharlton Athletic13 October · Championship5826161The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.4
Championship on the same day
- 353134XThe most likely outcome came true: X1:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:1, exactly right.2.2
- 4329281The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- 383032XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X0:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:0.2.3
- 4728251The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- 4428281The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
- 4428281The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
- 4627271The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.9
- 3129402The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:1, exactly right.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →