EFL Championship, round 14 · Tuesday, 3 November, MSK
Watford — Lincoln City
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 3 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Watford 33%, Lincoln City 37%, draw 30%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Watford — Lincoln City What is xG? | 1.1–1.2 | |
| Watford not to lose | 63% | |
| Lincoln City not to lose | 67% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 42% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 58% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Watford
- Watford goals
- Lincoln City goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 13.10away · Cardiff City1:5
- 10.10Burnley0:4
- 18.09away · Bristol City0:1
- 12.09Stoke City1:2
- 08.09Preston North End2:1
- 10.10away · Sheffield United0:3
- 19.09Swansea City1:2
- 15.09away · Bristol City1:0
- 12.09away · Preston North End1:0
- 08.09away · AFC Bournemouth0:4
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 18 | Cardiff City | 10 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | -4 | 8 |
| 22, Relegation | Watford | 10 | 2 | -11 | 8 |
| 23, Relegation | Derby County | 9 | 1 | -7 | 6 |
Championship on the same day
- Blackburn RoversStoke Citypreliminary5027221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- Derby CountyNorwich Citypreliminary3829341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- PortsmouthSwansea Citypreliminary3829341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
- Preston North EndSheffield Unitedpreliminary3228402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- Queens Park RangersBurnleypreliminary3829331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- Charlton AthleticBolton Wandererspreliminary372934XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.7
- Birmingham CityMillwallpreliminary4628261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- West Bromwich AlbionSouthamptonpreliminary3429372The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →