A-League Men (Australia), round 1 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
Wellington Phoenix — Melbourne Victory
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
Melbourne Victory are slightly stronger: 46% against 27%, draw 27%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Melbourne Victory are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Wellington Phoenix — Melbourne Victory What is xG? | 1.3–1.7 | |
| Wellington Phoenix not to lose | 54% | |
| Melbourne Victory not to lose | 73% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Wellington Phoenix
- Wellington Phoenix goals
- Melbourne Victory goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 24.04away · Macarthur FC0:4
- 18.04Western Sydney Wanderers FC2:1
- 12.04away · Melbourne City FC0:2
- 05.04away · Melbourne Victory1:0
- 21.03away · Brisbane Roar FC2:1
- 02.05Sydney FC0:1
- 25.04away · Western Sydney Wanderers FC2:0
- 17.04Newcastle Jets2:2
- 11.04away · Auckland FC2:2
- 05.04Wellington Phoenix0:1
Head to head
- 05.04.2026Melbourne Victory — Wellington Phoenix0:1
- 06.02.2026Wellington Phoenix — Melbourne Victory2:3
- 29.12.2025Melbourne Victory — Wellington Phoenix5:1
- 12.04.2025Wellington Phoenix — Melbourne Victory2:3
- 14.02.2025Melbourne Victory — Wellington Phoenix1:0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →