EFL Championship, round 12 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
West Ham United — Southampton
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
West Ham United are clear favourites: 53% against 23% for the opponent, draw 25%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.5 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 67%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Southampton are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: West Ham United — No. 6, 16 pts; Southampton — No. 3, 17 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Last 5 meetings: West Ham United 3 wins, Southampton 0, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: West Ham United — Southampton What is xG? | 2.1–1.4 | |
| West Ham United not to lose | 77% | |
| Southampton not to lose | 47% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 67% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 33% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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- Handicap West Ham United
- West Ham United goals
- Southampton goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 09.10Queens Park Rangers1:1
- 19.09away · Millwall2:2
- 15.09Fulham2:3
- 11.09Wrexham6:0
- 08.09away · Bolton Wanderers3:2
- 11.10Portsmouth1:0
- 19.09away · Wrexham1:2
- 12.09Bristol City4:1
- 08.09Swansea City3:1
- 05.09away · Lincoln City1:1
Head to head
- 25.08.2026Southampton — West Ham United1:4
- 19.04.2025West Ham United — Southampton1:1
- 26.12.2024Southampton — West Ham United0:1
- 02.04.2023West Ham United — Southampton1:0
- 16.10.2022Southampton — West Ham United1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Promotion | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | +6 | 21 |
| 3, Promotion play-offs | Southampton | 9 | 5 | +10 | 17 |
| 4, Promotion play-offs | Birmingham City | 10 | 4 | +6 | 17 |
| 5, Promotion play-offs | West Bromwich Albion | 10 | 5 | +2 | 17 |
| 6, Promotion play-offs | West Ham United | 9 | 4 | +11 | 16 |
| 7, Promotion play-offs | Stoke City | 10 | 5 | +1 | 16 |
Championship on the same day
- Charlton AthleticNorwich Citypreliminary2528462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- PortsmouthMillwallpreliminary4129301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- Sheffield UnitedDerby Countypreliminary5426201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- Blackburn RoversWrexhampreliminary373033XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.4
- Cardiff CityBirmingham Citypreliminary3628351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
- Lincoln CityBurnleypreliminary373033XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.6
- Preston North EndWest Bromwich Albionpreliminary343037XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.6
- Queens Park RangersSwansea Citypreliminary3929321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →