VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Thursday, 19 November, (UTC+3)
Almetyevsk — Metallurg Novokuznetsk
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 19 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Close to a coin flip: Almetyevsk 48%, Metallurg Novokuznetsk 52% including overtime.
4.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (4.7).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 33%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.2 and 2.3.
Facts
- League table: Almetyevsk — No. 3, 30 pts; Metallurg Novokuznetsk — No. 7, 27 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Almetyevsk: 5 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Almetyevsk 3 wins, Metallurg Novokuznetsk 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Almetyevsk — Metallurg Novokuznetsk | 2.2–2.3 | |
| Almetyevsk to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 48% | |
| Metallurg Novokuznetsk to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 52% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 33% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 67% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Almetyevsk
- Almetyevsk goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 03.11away · Ryazan2:1
- 25.10away · Bars2:0
- 21.10CSK VVS3:2 OT
- 14.10SKA-VMF St. Petersburg2:1 SO
- 12.10Dinamo St. Petersburg3:2
- 04.11Khimik5:6
- 29.10away · Gornyak4:3 SO
- 27.10away · Chelmet Chelyabinsk3:1
- 25.10away · Magnitka Magnitogorsk3:0
- 23.10away · Orsk1:2
Head to head
- 21.12.2025Almetyevsk — Metallurg Novokuznetsk3:1
- 22.11.2025Metallurg Novokuznetsk — Almetyevsk6:5 SO
- 23.12.2024Metallurg Novokuznetsk — Almetyevsk4:2
- 25.11.2024Almetyevsk — Metallurg Novokuznetsk4:3
- 21.12.2023Almetyevsk — Metallurg Novokuznetsk1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Playoffs | HC Norilsk | 22 | 15 | +10 | 32 |
| 3, Playoffs | Almetyevsk | 19 | 15 | +19 | 30 |
| 4, Playoffs | AKM | 21 | 12 | +13 | 29 |
| 6, Playoffs | Orsk | 19 | 11 | +11 | 28 |
| 7, Playoffs | Metallurg Novokuznetsk | 21 | 12 | +14 | 27 |
| 8, Playoffs | Khimik | 20 | 11 | +22 | 26 |
VHL on the same day
- Magnitka MagnitogorskKristall Saratovpreliminary59411The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.4
- Chelmet ChelyabinskDizelpreliminary47532The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:24.6
- GornyakTambovpreliminary60401The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0
- BarsDyn. Altaypreliminary58421The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.2
- Zvezda MoscowHC Yugrapreliminary32682The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.3
- Dinamo St. PetersburgRubin Tyumenpreliminary57431The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.6
- SKA-VMF St. PetersburgKurganpreliminary73271The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:14.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →