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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Wednesday, 18 November, (UTC+3)

Assat — Pelicans

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Model prediction for 18 November

Assat39%
Draw in regulation24%
Pelicans37%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: Assat 51%, Pelicans 49% including overtime.

The model expects few goals: 4.1 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 27%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.1 and 2.0.

Facts

  • League table: Assat — No. 6, 34 pts; Pelicans — No. 13, 24 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Assat 2 wins, Pelicans 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Assat — Pelicans2.1–2.0
Assat to win (incl. OT and shootout)51%
Pelicans to win (incl. OT and shootout)49%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)27%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)73%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Assat
  • Assat goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Assat

  • 31.10away · Vaasan Sport2:1
  • 30.10IFK Helsinki3:2
  • 28.10away · KooKoo3:5
  • 24.10away · JYP1:4
  • 21.10away · Tappara0:3

Pelicans

  • 31.10Kiekko-Espoo0:3
  • 30.10away · TPS Turku1:2
  • 28.10SaiPa5:0
  • 24.10Tappara5:4 SO
  • 20.10away · Hameenlinna3:1

Head to head

  • 06.02.2026Assat — Pelicans6:5
  • 20.12.2025Pelicans — Assat2:1 OT
  • 19.12.2025Assat — Pelicans1:2 SO
  • 22.11.2025Pelicans — Assat2:0
  • 05.03.2025Pelicans — Assat1:3

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsSaiPa18931552–38+1434
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsAssat201012746–48-234
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKarpat20744553–52+133
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKalPa18801946–41+525
13, Relegation play-offPelicans17711840–38+224
14, Relegation play-offHameenlinna206301142–55-1324

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • JYPVaasan Sportpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 118%Model's score: 4:15.4
  • JukuritJokeritpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.3
  • KalPaLukkopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.6
  • Kiekko-EspooIlvespreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.1
  • TPS TurkuKarpatpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →