Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Wednesday, 18 November, 19:30 (UTC+3)

Jukurit — Jokerit

Model prediction for 18 November

Jukurit42%

Draw in regulation24%

Jokerit34%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Jukurit are favourites: 54% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.3 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 30%.

Why

The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.2 and 2.0.

Facts

League table: Jukurit — No. 3, 36 pts; Jokerit — No. 16, 15 pts. A gap of 21 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Jukurit — Jokerit		2.3–2.0
Jukurit to win (incl. OT and shootout)		54%
Jokerit to win (incl. OT and shootout)		46%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		30%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		70%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Jukurit
Jukurit goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Jukurit

31.10away · Karpat2:1
28.10Lukko3:4 SO
24.10away · Ilves2:1 SO
23.10Ilves0:3
20.10away · Vaasan Sport3:0

Jokerit

31.10away · JYP4:5 OT
30.10away · KalPa1:4
24.10away · KooKoo6:3
17.10away · Ilves3:4 SO
16.10Assat2:4

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Ilves	20	10	3	1	6	52–39	+13	37
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Jukurit	20	9	4	1	6	49–40	+9	36
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	JYP	17	10	2	1	4	59–48	+11	35
15, Relegation play-off	Vaasan Sport	18	5	1	2	10	33–53	-20	19
16, Relegation play-off	Jokerit	18	3	1	4	10	41–62	-21	15
17, Relegation	KooKoo	20	2	1	2	15	46–81	-35	10

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

19:30
JYPVaasan Sportpreliminary
7426
1The model's most likely outcome: 118%Model's score: 4:15.4
19:30
AssatPelicanspreliminary
5149
1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.1
19:30
KalPaLukkopreliminary
4555
2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.6
19:30
Kiekko-EspooIlvespreliminary
5248
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.1
19:30
TPS TurkuKarpatpreliminary
5941
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →