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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Wednesday, 18 November, (UTC+3)

Kiekko-Espoo — Ilves

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Model prediction for 18 November

Kiekko-Espoo41%
Draw in regulation22%
Ilves37%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: Kiekko-Espoo 52%, Ilves 48% including overtime.

5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 44%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.6 and 2.5.

Facts

  • League table: Kiekko-Espoo — No. 8, 31 pts; Ilves — No. 2, 37 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
  • Kiekko-Espoo: 3 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Kiekko-Espoo 2 wins, Ilves 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kiekko-Espoo — Ilves2.6–2.5
Kiekko-Espoo to win (incl. OT and shootout)52%
Ilves to win (incl. OT and shootout)48%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)44%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)56%

111 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Kiekko-Espoo
  • Kiekko-Espoo goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Kiekko-Espoo

  • 31.10away · Pelicans3:0
  • 30.10away · Hameenlinna4:1
  • 28.10TPS Turku5:4 OT
  • 23.10IFK Helsinki0:3
  • 21.10KooKoo4:2

Ilves

  • 31.10KalPa1:0
  • 30.10away · Tappara2:1 SO
  • 28.10away · IFK Helsinki1:2
  • 24.10Jukurit1:2 SO
  • 23.10away · Jukurit3:0

Head to head

  • 03.10.2026Ilves — Kiekko-Espoo6:4
  • 20.12.2025Kiekko-Espoo — Ilves2:5
  • 19.12.2025Ilves — Kiekko-Espoo5:0
  • 22.11.2025Kiekko-Espoo — Ilves4:3 OT
  • 29.10.2025Ilves — Kiekko-Espoo5:7

Full record: 9 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsLukko191131453–36+1740
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsIlves201031652–39+1337
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsJukurit20941649–40+936
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKarpat20744553–52+133
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKiekko-Espoo20823761–49+1231
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTPS Turku19912753–48+531

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • JYPVaasan Sportpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 118%Model's score: 4:15.4
  • AssatPelicanspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.1
  • JukuritJokeritpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.3
  • KalPaLukkopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.6
  • TPS TurkuKarpatpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →