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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Wednesday, 18 November, (UTC+3)

KalPa — Lukko

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Model prediction for 18 November

KalPa34%
Draw in regulation23%
Lukko42%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Lukko are favourites: 55% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.6 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 35%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.2 and 2.4.

Facts

  • League table: KalPa — No. 12, 25 pts; Lukko — No. 1, 40 pts. A gap of 15 pts.
  • Lukko: 5 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: KalPa 1 win, Lukko 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: KalPa — Lukko2.2–2.4
KalPa to win (incl. OT and shootout)45%
Lukko to win (incl. OT and shootout)55%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)35%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)65%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap KalPa
  • KalPa goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

KalPa

  • 31.10away · Ilves0:1
  • 30.10Jokerit4:1
  • 27.10Vaasan Sport5:2
  • 24.10away · Karpat5:1
  • 23.10away · Karpat2:5

Lukko

  • 30.10KooKoo3:1
  • 28.10away · Jukurit4:3 SO
  • 24.10away · TPS Turku3:1
  • 23.10TPS Turku4:1
  • 20.10IFK Helsinki3:2 SO

Head to head

  • 26.09.2026KalPa — Lukko1:2
  • 17.03.2026Lukko — KalPa6:5 OT
  • 22.11.2025KalPa — Lukko6:2
  • 18.12.2024Lukko — KalPa5:3
  • 13.12.2024KalPa — Lukko1:4

Full record: 9 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsLukko191131453–36+1740
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsIlves201031652–39+1337
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsIFK Helsinki19714753–56-327
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKalPa18801946–41+525
13, Relegation play-offPelicans17711840–38+224

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • JYPVaasan Sportpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 118%Model's score: 4:15.4
  • AssatPelicanspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.1
  • JukuritJokeritpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.3
  • Kiekko-EspooIlvespreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.1
  • TPS TurkuKarpatpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →