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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Wednesday, 18 November, (UTC+3)

TPS Turku — Karpat

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Model prediction for 18 November

TPS Turku47%
Draw in regulation22%
Karpat31%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

TPS Turku are favourites: 59% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.8 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 39%.

Why

  • TPS Turku are more dangerous in attack: 2.6 expected goals against 2.2.

Facts

  • League table: TPS Turku — No. 9, 31 pts; Karpat — No. 7, 33 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: TPS Turku 1 win, Karpat 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: TPS Turku — Karpat2.6–2.2
TPS Turku to win (incl. OT and shootout)59%
Karpat to win (incl. OT and shootout)41%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)39%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)61%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap TPS Turku
  • TPS Turku goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

TPS Turku

  • 30.10Pelicans2:1
  • 28.10away · Kiekko-Espoo4:5 OT
  • 24.10Lukko1:3
  • 23.10away · Lukko1:4
  • 20.10Ilves4:3

Karpat

  • 31.10Jukurit1:2
  • 28.10Hameenlinna1:0
  • 24.10KalPa1:5
  • 23.10KalPa5:2
  • 20.10away · SaiPa1:2 SO

Head to head

  • 10.01.2026TPS Turku — Karpat2:3
  • 21.11.2025Karpat — TPS Turku0:4
  • 04.01.2025Karpat — TPS Turku4:3
  • 05.10.2024TPS Turku — Karpat2:4
  • 27.01.2024Karpat — TPS Turku4:3

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsAssat201012746–48-234
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKarpat20744553–52+133
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKiekko-Espoo20823761–49+1231
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTPS Turku19912753–48+531
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTappara19723751–46+528

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • JYPVaasan Sportpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 118%Model's score: 4:15.4
  • AssatPelicanspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.1
  • JukuritJokeritpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.3
  • KalPaLukkopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.6
  • Kiekko-EspooIlvespreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →