Swiss National League (hockey) · Tuesday, 24 November, 21:45 (UTC+3)

Bern — Ambri-Piotta

Model prediction for 24 November

Bern46%

Draw in regulation22%

Ambri-Piotta32%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Bern are favourites: 58% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 5.0 in total, against a competition average of 5.4.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 43%.

Why

Bern are more dangerous in attack: 2.7 expected goals against 2.3.

Facts

League table: Bern — No. 6, 28 pts; Ambri-Piotta — No. 2, 33 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
Last 5 meetings: Bern 3 wins, Ambri-Piotta 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Bern — Ambri-Piotta		2.7–2.3
Bern to win (incl. OT and shootout)		58%
Ambri-Piotta to win (incl. OT and shootout)		42%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		43%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		57%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Bern
Bern goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Bern

31.10Zug1:8
30.10away · Ajoie4:1
27.10Zurich1:4
25.10Lugano2:1 OT
23.10away · Davos4:1

Ambri-Piotta

31.10Lugano4:3
30.10away · Zurich3:4 SO
27.10Biel4:3 SO
24.10Ajoie3:0
23.10away · Rapperswil-Jona3:6

Head to head

10.10.2026Ambri-Piotta — Bern1:2 OT
07.03.2026Ambri-Piotta — Bern4:1
09.01.2026Bern — Ambri-Piotta0:1 SO
21.10.2025Ambri-Piotta — Bern0:5
16.09.2025Bern — Ambri-Piotta3:1

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Zurich	18	13	4	0	1	75–38	+37	47
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Ambri-Piotta	18	9	2	2	5	57–53	+4	33
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Servette	19	8	3	2	6	49–55	-6	32
5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Zug	13	9	0	1	3	49–27	+22	28
6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Bern	17	7	2	3	5	46–47	-1	28
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Fribourg	18	7	2	2	7	57–44	+13	27

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

National League on the same day

21:45
DavosServettepreliminary
5644
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.9
21:45
FribourgZurichpreliminary
4753
2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 2:34.9
21:45
Langnau TigersAjoiepreliminary
6931
1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 4:25.5
21:45
LausanneRapperswil-Jonapreliminary
5842
1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:25.4
21:45
LuganoBielpreliminary
5742
1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.7
21:45
ZugEHC Klotenpreliminary
7030
1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 3:14.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →