Swiss National League (hockey) · Tuesday, 24 November, 21:45 (UTC+3)

Fribourg — Zurich

Model prediction for 24 November

Fribourg37%

Draw in regulation23%

Zurich41%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: Fribourg 47%, Zurich 53% including overtime.

The model expects few goals: 4.9 in total, against a competition average of 5.4.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 41%.

Why

The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.4 and 2.5.

Facts

League table: Fribourg — No. 7, 27 pts; Zurich — No. 1, 47 pts. A gap of 20 pts.
Zurich: 5 wins in a row.
Last 5 meetings: Fribourg 4 wins, Zurich 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Fribourg — Zurich		2.4–2.5
Fribourg to win (incl. OT and shootout)		47%
Zurich to win (incl. OT and shootout)		53%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		41%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		59%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Fribourg
Fribourg goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Fribourg

30.10Servette0:1
28.10away · Langnau Tigers2:4
27.10Davos3:1
24.10away · Lausanne0:2
23.10Biel6:3

Zurich

31.10away · EHC Kloten4:0
30.10Ambri-Piotta4:3 SO
27.10away · Bern4:1
25.10away · Servette5:1
23.10Langnau Tigers3:2

Head to head

10.10.2026Zurich — Fribourg5:4 OT
24.01.2026Zurich — Fribourg3:4 SO
20.12.2025Fribourg — Zurich4:2
24.10.2025Zurich — Fribourg1:2 OT
23.09.2025Fribourg — Zurich3:2 SO

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Zurich	18	13	4	0	1	75–38	+37	47
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Ambri-Piotta	18	9	2	2	5	57–53	+4	33
6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Bern	17	7	2	3	5	46–47	-1	28
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Fribourg	18	7	2	2	7	57–44	+13	27
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Lausanne	20	7	2	1	10	59–69	-10	26

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

National League on the same day

21:45
BernAmbri-Piottapreliminary
5842
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0
21:45
DavosServettepreliminary
5644
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.9
21:45
Langnau TigersAjoiepreliminary
6931
1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 4:25.5
21:45
LausanneRapperswil-Jonapreliminary
5842
1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:25.4
21:45
LuganoBielpreliminary
5742
1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.7
21:45
ZugEHC Klotenpreliminary
7030
1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 3:14.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →