Swiss National League (hockey) · Tuesday, 24 November, 21:45 (UTC+3)

Lugano — Biel

Model prediction for 24 November

Lugano46%

Draw in regulation21%

Biel33%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Lugano are favourites: 57% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.4).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 55%.

Why

Lugano are more dangerous in attack: 3.0 expected goals against 2.6.

Facts

League table: Lugano — No. 12, 22 pts; Biel — No. 11, 23 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
Last 5 meetings: Lugano 2 wins, Biel 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Lugano — Biel		3.0–2.6
Lugano to win (incl. OT and shootout)		57%
Biel to win (incl. OT and shootout)		42%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		55%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		45%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Lugano
Lugano goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Lugano

31.10away · Ambri-Piotta3:4
29.10Lausanne4:0
27.10away · Zug2:7
25.10away · Bern1:2 OT
23.10EHC Kloten2:5

Biel

31.10away · Servette2:3
30.10EHC Kloten4:2
27.10away · Ambri-Piotta3:4 SO
24.10Zug5:0
23.10away · Fribourg3:6

Head to head

10.10.2026Biel — Lugano2:3
24.02.2026Lugano — Biel3:4 SO
02.01.2026Biel — Lugano3:1
15.11.2025Lugano — Biel6:0
16.09.2025Biel — Lugano3:2 OT

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Davos	19	6	2	2	9	45–55	-10	24
11	Biel	18	7	0	2	9	57–60	-3	23
12	Lugano	18	6	1	2	9	56–62	-6	22
13, Relegation play-off	Rapperswil-Jona	19	4	2	3	10	50–69	-19	19

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

National League on the same day

21:45
BernAmbri-Piottapreliminary
5842
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0
21:45
DavosServettepreliminary
5644
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.9
21:45
FribourgZurichpreliminary
4753
2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 2:34.9
21:45
Langnau TigersAjoiepreliminary
6931
1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 4:25.5
21:45
LausanneRapperswil-Jonapreliminary
5842
1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:25.4
21:45
ZugEHC Klotenpreliminary
7030
1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 3:14.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →