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SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)

Djurgarden — Lulea

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Model prediction for 21 November

Djurgarden36%
Draw in regulation23%
Lulea41%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: Djurgarden 47%, Lulea 53% including overtime.

The model expects few goals: 4.6 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 35%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.2 and 2.3.

Facts

  • League table: Djurgarden — No. 8, 20 pts; Lulea — No. 7, 20 pts.
  • Djurgarden: 3 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Djurgarden 3 wins, Lulea 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Djurgarden — Lulea2.2–2.4
Djurgarden to win (incl. OT and shootout)47%
Lulea to win (incl. OT and shootout)53%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)35%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)65%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Djurgarden
  • Djurgarden goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Djurgarden

  • 31.10Brynas3:2
  • 29.10HV 713:0
  • 24.10away · Lulea3:2 OT
  • 22.10away · Skelleftea1:4
  • 20.10away · Frolunda2:6

Lulea

  • 31.10away · Timra3:2 SO
  • 29.10IF Bjorkloven4:0
  • 24.10Djurgarden2:3 OT
  • 22.10away · Vaxjo1:2
  • 17.10HV 715:2

Head to head

  • 24.10.2026Lulea — Djurgarden2:3 OT
  • 07.03.2026Djurgarden — Lulea4:1
  • 30.12.2025Djurgarden — Lulea3:4
  • 13.11.2025Lulea — Djurgarden3:2 OT
  • 25.09.2025Lulea — Djurgarden2:4

Full record: 5 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsOrebro14612533–41-822
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLulea14513536–37-120
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsDjurgarden15432633–41-820
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTimra14431627–31-419

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

SHL on the same day

  • FrolundaBrynaspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0
  • RogleTimrapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.5
  • FarjestadMalmopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 4:25.4
  • HV 71Vaxjopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.0
  • IF BjorklovenLinkopingpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:34.9
  • OrebroSkellefteapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 220%Model's score: 2:45.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →