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SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)

HV 71 — Vaxjo

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Model prediction for 21 November

HV 7141%
Draw in regulation22%
Vaxjo37%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: HV 71 52%, Vaxjo 48% including overtime.

5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 43%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.5 and 2.4.

Facts

  • League table: HV 71 — No. 14, 11 pts; Vaxjo — No. 12, 15 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
  • HV 71: 5 defeats in a row; Vaxjo: 3 defeats in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: HV 71 2 wins, Vaxjo 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: HV 71 — Vaxjo2.5–2.4
HV 71 to win (incl. OT and shootout)52%
Vaxjo to win (incl. OT and shootout)48%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)43%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)57%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap HV 71
  • HV 71 goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

HV 71

  • 31.10away · Malmo2:3 OT
  • 29.10away · Djurgarden0:3
  • 24.10Frolunda2:6
  • 20.10Linkoping2:3 SO
  • 17.10away · Lulea2:5

Vaxjo

  • 31.10Farjestad1:5
  • 29.10away · Timra0:3
  • 24.10away · Farjestad1:4
  • 22.10Lulea2:1
  • 17.10away · Brynas3:2

Head to head

  • 26.09.2026Vaxjo — HV 717:5
  • 12.03.2026HV 71 — Vaxjo3:0
  • 17.01.2026Vaxjo — HV 714:0
  • 13.11.2025HV 71 — Vaxjo5:4
  • 16.09.2025Vaxjo — HV 715:3

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
11Brynas14411840–39+115
12Vaxjo14411833–47-1415
13, Relegation play-offLinkoping14311927–51-2412
14, Relegation play-offHV 7114124733–51-1811

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

SHL on the same day

  • DjurgardenLuleapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:24.6
  • FrolundaBrynaspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0
  • RogleTimrapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.5
  • FarjestadMalmopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 4:25.4
  • IF BjorklovenLinkopingpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:34.9
  • OrebroSkellefteapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 220%Model's score: 2:45.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →