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SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)

Farjestad — Malmo

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Model prediction for 21 November

Farjestad57%
Draw in regulation20%
Malmo23%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Farjestad are clear favourites: 69% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 50%.

Why

  • Farjestad are more dangerous in attack: 3.2 expected goals against 2.2.

Facts

  • League table: Farjestad — No. 1, 39 pts; Malmo — No. 4, 25 pts. A gap of 14 pts.
  • Farjestad: 5 wins in a row; Malmo: 3 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Farjestad 2 wins, Malmo 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Farjestad — Malmo3.2–2.2
Farjestad to win (incl. OT and shootout)69%
Malmo to win (incl. OT and shootout)31%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)50%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Farjestad
  • Farjestad goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Farjestad

  • 31.10away · Vaxjo5:1
  • 29.10away · Brynas5:4
  • 24.10Vaxjo4:1
  • 22.10away · Timra4:0
  • 17.10away · Linkoping4:2

Malmo

  • 31.10HV 713:2 OT
  • 29.10away · Rogle3:0
  • 27.10Linkoping8:2
  • 24.10Timra1:2
  • 22.10away · IF Bjorkloven4:2

Head to head

  • 10.10.2026Farjestad — Malmo6:2
  • 05.03.2026Malmo — Farjestad2:1 OT
  • 06.01.2026Malmo — Farjestad2:1
  • 27.11.2025Farjestad — Malmo2:3
  • 16.09.2025Farjestad — Malmo6:2

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsFarjestad141211058–17+4139
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsSkelleftea14912252–31+2131
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsFrolunda16920555–39+1631
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsMalmo14623345–33+1225
5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsRogle15621639–36+323

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

SHL on the same day

  • DjurgardenLuleapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:24.6
  • FrolundaBrynaspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0
  • RogleTimrapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.5
  • HV 71Vaxjopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.0
  • IF BjorklovenLinkopingpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:34.9
  • OrebroSkellefteapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 220%Model's score: 2:45.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →