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SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Thursday, 19 November, (UTC+3)

Farjestad — Frolunda

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Model prediction for 19 November

Farjestad52%
Draw in regulation21%
Frolunda27%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Farjestad are clear favourites: 64% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 43%.

Why

  • Farjestad are more dangerous in attack: 2.9 expected goals against 2.1.

Facts

  • League table: Farjestad — No. 1, 39 pts; Frolunda — No. 3, 31 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
  • Farjestad: 5 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Farjestad 2 wins, Frolunda 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Farjestad — Frolunda2.9–2.1
Farjestad to win (incl. OT and shootout)64%
Frolunda to win (incl. OT and shootout)36%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)43%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)57%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Farjestad
  • Farjestad goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Farjestad

  • 31.10away · Vaxjo5:1
  • 29.10away · Brynas5:4
  • 24.10Vaxjo4:1
  • 22.10away · Timra4:0
  • 17.10away · Linkoping4:2

Frolunda

  • 31.10Linkoping4:1
  • 29.10away · Orebro2:3
  • 27.10Rogle4:5
  • 24.10away · HV 716:2
  • 22.10away · Rogle1:4

Head to head

  • 22.09.2026Frolunda — Farjestad3:2 SO
  • 29.01.2026Farjestad — Frolunda3:2
  • 30.12.2025Frolunda — Farjestad5:3
  • 01.11.2025Frolunda — Farjestad4:1
  • 25.09.2025Farjestad — Frolunda4:3

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsFarjestad141211058–17+4139
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsSkelleftea14912252–31+2131
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsFrolunda16920555–39+1631
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsMalmo14623345–33+1225

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

SHL on the same day

  • BrynasLuleapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.7
  • DjurgardenSkellefteapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 219%Model's score: 1:35.2
  • LinkopingHV 71preliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.1
  • MalmoRoglepreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.2
  • TimraOrebropreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • VaxjoIF Bjorklovenpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:14.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →