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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Friday, 20 November, (UTC+3)

Hameenlinna — Jokerit

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Model prediction for 20 November

Hameenlinna39%
Draw in regulation23%
Jokerit37%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: Hameenlinna 50%, Jokerit 50% including overtime.

The model expects few goals: 4.4 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 32%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.2 and 2.2.

Facts

  • League table: Hameenlinna — No. 14, 24 pts; Jokerit — No. 16, 15 pts. A gap of 9 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Hameenlinna — Jokerit2.2–2.2
Hameenlinna to win (incl. OT and shootout)50%
Jokerit to win (incl. OT and shootout)50%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)32%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)68%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Hameenlinna
  • Hameenlinna goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Hameenlinna

  • 01.11away · Tappara3:0
  • 30.10Kiekko-Espoo1:4
  • 28.10away · Karpat0:1
  • 24.10IFK Helsinki3:6
  • 22.10away · JYP2:3

Jokerit

  • 31.10away · JYP4:5 OT
  • 30.10away · KalPa1:4
  • 24.10away · KooKoo6:3
  • 17.10away · Ilves3:4 SO
  • 16.10Assat2:4

Head to head

  • 29.09.2026Jokerit — Hameenlinna3:0

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
13, Relegation play-offPelicans17711840–38+224
14, Relegation play-offHameenlinna206301142–55-1324
15, Relegation play-offVaasan Sport185121033–53-2019
16, Relegation play-offJokerit183141041–62-2115
17, RelegationKooKoo202121546–81-3510

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • KooKooKarpatpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.4
  • JYPIFK Helsinkipreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.4
  • PelicansLukkopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.1
  • SaiPaTPS Turkupreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:24.9
  • IlvesTapparapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →