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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Friday, 20 November, (UTC+3)

Pelicans — Lukko

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Model prediction for 20 November

Pelicans35%
Draw in regulation24%
Lukko41%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Lukko are favourites: 54% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.1 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 27%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.0 and 2.1.

Facts

  • League table: Pelicans — No. 13, 24 pts; Lukko — No. 1, 40 pts. A gap of 16 pts.
  • Lukko: 5 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Pelicans 2 wins, Lukko 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Pelicans — Lukko2.0–2.1
Pelicans to win (incl. OT and shootout)46%
Lukko to win (incl. OT and shootout)54%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)27%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)73%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Pelicans
  • Pelicans goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Pelicans

  • 31.10Kiekko-Espoo0:3
  • 30.10away · TPS Turku1:2
  • 28.10SaiPa5:0
  • 24.10Tappara5:4 SO
  • 20.10away · Hameenlinna3:1

Lukko

  • 30.10KooKoo3:1
  • 28.10away · Jukurit4:3 SO
  • 24.10away · TPS Turku3:1
  • 23.10TPS Turku4:1
  • 20.10IFK Helsinki3:2 SO

Head to head

  • 28.02.2026Lukko — Pelicans2:5
  • 13.01.2026Lukko — Pelicans4:3 OT
  • 27.12.2025Pelicans — Lukko1:5
  • 11.10.2025Pelicans — Lukko2:0
  • 08.01.2025Pelicans — Lukko2:5

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsLukko191131453–36+1740
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsIlves201031652–39+1337
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKalPa18801946–41+525
13, Relegation play-offPelicans17711840–38+224
14, Relegation play-offHameenlinna206301142–55-1324

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • KooKooKarpatpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.4
  • HameenlinnaJokeritpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.4
  • JYPIFK Helsinkipreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.4
  • SaiPaTPS Turkupreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:24.9
  • IlvesTapparapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →