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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Friday, 20 November, (UTC+3)

Ilves — Tappara

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Model prediction for 20 November

Ilves45%
Draw in regulation22%
Tappara33%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Ilves are favourites: 56% to win including overtime and shootout.

4.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 41%.

Why

  • Ilves are more dangerous in attack: 2.6 expected goals against 2.3.

Facts

  • League table: Ilves — No. 2, 37 pts; Tappara — No. 10, 28 pts. A gap of 9 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Ilves 1 win, Tappara 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Ilves — Tappara2.6–2.3
Ilves to win (incl. OT and shootout)56%
Tappara to win (incl. OT and shootout)44%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)41%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)59%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Ilves
  • Ilves goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Ilves

  • 31.10KalPa1:0
  • 30.10away · Tappara2:1 SO
  • 28.10away · IFK Helsinki1:2
  • 24.10Jukurit1:2 SO
  • 23.10away · Jukurit3:0

Tappara

  • 01.11Hameenlinna0:3
  • 30.10Ilves1:2 SO
  • 28.10away · JYP6:4
  • 24.10away · Pelicans4:5 SO
  • 21.10Assat3:0

Head to head

  • 30.10.2026Tappara — Ilves1:2 SO
  • 27.04.2026Ilves — Tappara3:4
  • 25.04.2026Tappara — Ilves2:1 OT
  • 23.04.2026Ilves — Tappara1:5
  • 21.04.2026Tappara — Ilves3:2

Full record: 29 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsLukko191131453–36+1740
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsIlves201031652–39+1337
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsJukurit20941649–40+936
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTPS Turku19912753–48+531
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTappara19723751–46+528
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsIFK Helsinki19714753–56-327

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • KooKooKarpatpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.4
  • HameenlinnaJokeritpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.4
  • JYPIFK Helsinkipreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.4
  • PelicansLukkopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.1
  • SaiPaTPS Turkupreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:24.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →