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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)

Jukurit — TPS Turku

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Model prediction for 21 November

Jukurit33%
Draw in regulation24%
TPS Turku43%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

TPS Turku are favourites: 56% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.3 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 30%.

Why

  • TPS Turku are more dangerous in attack: 2.3 expected goals against 2.0.

Facts

  • League table: Jukurit — No. 3, 36 pts; TPS Turku — No. 9, 31 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Jukurit 4 wins, TPS Turku 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Jukurit — TPS Turku2.0–2.3
Jukurit to win (incl. OT and shootout)44%
TPS Turku to win (incl. OT and shootout)56%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)30%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)70%

111 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Jukurit
  • Jukurit goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Jukurit

  • 31.10away · Karpat2:1
  • 28.10Lukko3:4 SO
  • 24.10away · Ilves2:1 SO
  • 23.10Ilves0:3
  • 20.10away · Vaasan Sport3:0

TPS Turku

  • 30.10Pelicans2:1
  • 28.10away · Kiekko-Espoo4:5 OT
  • 24.10Lukko1:3
  • 23.10away · Lukko1:4
  • 20.10Ilves4:3

Head to head

  • 15.09.2026TPS Turku — Jukurit1:4
  • 11.12.2025TPS Turku — Jukurit3:1
  • 24.10.2025Jukurit — TPS Turku3:0
  • 04.10.2025TPS Turku — Jukurit2:3
  • 03.10.2025Jukurit — TPS Turku2:1 SO

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsIlves201031652–39+1337
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsJukurit20941649–40+936
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsJYP171021459–48+1135
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKiekko-Espoo20823761–49+1231
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTPS Turku19912753–48+531
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTappara19723751–46+528

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • Kiekko-EspooAssatpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0
  • KalPaIFK Helsinkipreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • KarpatJokeritpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • LukkoHameenlinnapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:14.5
  • Vaasan SportPelicanspreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:24.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →