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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)

Lukko — Hameenlinna

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Model prediction for 21 November

Lukko57%
Draw in regulation21%
Hameenlinna22%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Lukko are clear favourites: 69% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.5 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 33%.

Why

  • Lukko are more dangerous in attack: 2.7 expected goals against 1.7.

Facts

  • League table: Lukko — No. 1, 40 pts; Hameenlinna — No. 14, 24 pts. A gap of 16 pts.
  • Lukko: 5 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Lukko 2 wins, Hameenlinna 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Lukko — Hameenlinna2.7–1.7
Lukko to win (incl. OT and shootout)69%
Hameenlinna to win (incl. OT and shootout)31%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)33%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)67%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Lukko
  • Lukko goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Lukko

  • 30.10KooKoo3:1
  • 28.10away · Jukurit4:3 SO
  • 24.10away · TPS Turku3:1
  • 23.10TPS Turku4:1
  • 20.10IFK Helsinki3:2 SO

Hameenlinna

  • 01.11away · Tappara3:0
  • 30.10Kiekko-Espoo1:4
  • 28.10away · Karpat0:1
  • 24.10IFK Helsinki3:6
  • 22.10away · JYP2:3

Head to head

  • 22.09.2026Hameenlinna — Lukko1:3
  • 24.03.2026Hameenlinna — Lukko4:1
  • 23.03.2026Lukko — Hameenlinna1:3
  • 21.03.2026Hameenlinna — Lukko2:0
  • 20.03.2026Lukko — Hameenlinna2:1

Full record: 17 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsLukko191131453–36+1740
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsIlves201031652–39+1337
13, Relegation play-offPelicans17711840–38+224
14, Relegation play-offHameenlinna206301142–55-1324
15, Relegation play-offVaasan Sport185121033–53-2019

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • Kiekko-EspooAssatpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0
  • JukuritTPS Turkupreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.3
  • KalPaIFK Helsinkipreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • KarpatJokeritpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • Vaasan SportPelicanspreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:24.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →