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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)

Vaasan Sport — Pelicans

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Model prediction for 21 November

Vaasan Sport29%
Draw in regulation23%
Pelicans47%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Pelicans are favourites: 61% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.2 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 29%.

Why

  • Pelicans are more dangerous in attack: 2.4 expected goals against 1.9.

Facts

  • League table: Vaasan Sport — No. 15, 19 pts; Pelicans — No. 13, 24 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
  • Vaasan Sport: 5 defeats in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Vaasan Sport 1 win, Pelicans 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Vaasan Sport — Pelicans1.9–2.4
Vaasan Sport to win (incl. OT and shootout)39%
Pelicans to win (incl. OT and shootout)61%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)29%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)71%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Vaasan Sport
  • Vaasan Sport goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Vaasan Sport

  • 31.10Assat1:2
  • 27.10away · KalPa2:5
  • 24.10SaiPa1:3
  • 23.10SaiPa3:5
  • 20.10Jukurit0:3

Pelicans

  • 31.10Kiekko-Espoo0:3
  • 30.10away · TPS Turku1:2
  • 28.10SaiPa5:0
  • 24.10Tappara5:4 SO
  • 20.10away · Hameenlinna3:1

Head to head

  • 16.10.2026Pelicans — Vaasan Sport1:2
  • 04.09.2026Pelicans — Vaasan Sport6:3
  • 27.02.2026Pelicans — Vaasan Sport3:2 SO
  • 24.01.2026Vaasan Sport — Pelicans2:3
  • 11.12.2025Vaasan Sport — Pelicans0:4

Full record: 14 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKalPa18801946–41+525
13, Relegation play-offPelicans17711840–38+224
14, Relegation play-offHameenlinna206301142–55-1324
15, Relegation play-offVaasan Sport185121033–53-2019
16, Relegation play-offJokerit183141041–62-2115

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • Kiekko-EspooAssatpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0
  • JukuritTPS Turkupreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.3
  • KalPaIFK Helsinkipreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • KarpatJokeritpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • LukkoHameenlinnapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:14.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →