Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Saturday, 21 November, 18:00 (UTC+3)

Karpat — Jokerit

Model prediction for 21 November

Karpat48%

Draw in regulation22%

Jokerit30%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Karpat are favourites: 60% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.8 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 40%.

Why

Karpat are more dangerous in attack: 2.7 expected goals against 2.2.

Facts

League table: Karpat — No. 7, 33 pts; Jokerit — No. 16, 15 pts. A gap of 18 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Karpat — Jokerit		2.7–2.1
Karpat to win (incl. OT and shootout)		60%
Jokerit to win (incl. OT and shootout)		40%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		40%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		60%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Karpat
Karpat goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Karpat

31.10Jukurit1:2
28.10Hameenlinna1:0
24.10KalPa1:5
23.10KalPa5:2
20.10away · SaiPa1:2 SO

Jokerit

31.10away · JYP4:5 OT
30.10away · KalPa1:4
24.10away · KooKoo6:3
17.10away · Ilves3:4 SO
16.10Assat2:4

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Assat	20	10	1	2	7	46–48	-2	34
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Karpat	20	7	4	4	5	53–52	+1	33
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Kiekko-Espoo	20	8	2	3	7	61–49	+12	31
15, Relegation play-off	Vaasan Sport	18	5	1	2	10	33–53	-20	19
16, Relegation play-off	Jokerit	18	3	1	4	10	41–62	-21	15
17, Relegation	KooKoo	20	2	1	2	15	46–81	-35	10

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

15:00
Kiekko-EspooAssatpreliminary
6238
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0
18:00
JukuritTPS Turkupreliminary
4456
2The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.3
18:00
KalPaIFK Helsinkipreliminary
5545
1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.8
18:00
LukkoHameenlinnapreliminary
6931
1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:14.5
18:00
Vaasan SportPelicanspreliminary
3961
2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:24.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →