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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)

Kiekko-Espoo — Assat

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Model prediction for 21 November

Kiekko-Espoo50%
Draw in regulation22%
Assat28%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Kiekko-Espoo are favourites: 62% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 43%.

Why

  • Kiekko-Espoo are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.2.

Facts

  • League table: Kiekko-Espoo — No. 8, 31 pts; Assat — No. 6, 34 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
  • Kiekko-Espoo: 3 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Kiekko-Espoo 2 wins, Assat 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kiekko-Espoo — Assat2.8–2.2
Kiekko-Espoo to win (incl. OT and shootout)62%
Assat to win (incl. OT and shootout)38%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)43%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)57%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Kiekko-Espoo
  • Kiekko-Espoo goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Kiekko-Espoo

  • 31.10away · Pelicans3:0
  • 30.10away · Hameenlinna4:1
  • 28.10TPS Turku5:4 OT
  • 23.10IFK Helsinki0:3
  • 21.10KooKoo4:2

Assat

  • 31.10away · Vaasan Sport2:1
  • 30.10IFK Helsinki3:2
  • 28.10away · KooKoo3:5
  • 24.10away · JYP1:4
  • 21.10away · Tappara0:3

Head to head

  • 19.09.2026Assat — Kiekko-Espoo2:1
  • 26.03.2026Assat — Kiekko-Espoo5:2
  • 24.03.2026Kiekko-Espoo — Assat4:1
  • 23.03.2026Assat — Kiekko-Espoo2:5
  • 21.03.2026Kiekko-Espoo — Assat1:2 OT

Full record: 14 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsSaiPa18931552–38+1434
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsAssat201012746–48-234
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKarpat20744553–52+133
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKiekko-Espoo20823761–49+1231
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTPS Turku19912753–48+531

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • JukuritTPS Turkupreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.3
  • KalPaIFK Helsinkipreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • KarpatJokeritpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • LukkoHameenlinnapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:14.5
  • Vaasan SportPelicanspreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:24.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →