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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)

KalPa — IFK Helsinki

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Model prediction for 21 November

KalPa43%
Draw in regulation23%
IFK Helsinki34%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

KalPa are favourites: 55% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.8 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 39%.

Why

  • KalPa are more dangerous in attack: 2.5 expected goals against 2.3.

Facts

  • League table: KalPa — No. 12, 25 pts; IFK Helsinki — No. 11, 27 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: KalPa 2 wins, IFK Helsinki 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: KalPa — IFK Helsinki2.5–2.3
KalPa to win (incl. OT and shootout)55%
IFK Helsinki to win (incl. OT and shootout)45%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)39%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)61%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap KalPa
  • KalPa goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

KalPa

  • 31.10away · Ilves0:1
  • 30.10Jokerit4:1
  • 27.10Vaasan Sport5:2
  • 24.10away · Karpat5:1
  • 23.10away · Karpat2:5

IFK Helsinki

  • 31.10away · KooKoo3:1
  • 30.10away · Assat2:3
  • 28.10Ilves2:1
  • 24.10away · Hameenlinna6:3
  • 23.10away · Kiekko-Espoo3:0

Head to head

  • 10.10.2026IFK Helsinki — KalPa6:1
  • 26.03.2026KalPa — IFK Helsinki3:2 OT
  • 24.03.2026IFK Helsinki — KalPa1:4
  • 23.03.2026IFK Helsinki — KalPa1:0 OT
  • 21.03.2026KalPa — IFK Helsinki1:4

Full record: 18 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTappara19723751–46+528
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsIFK Helsinki19714753–56-327
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKalPa18801946–41+525
13, Relegation play-offPelicans17711840–38+224

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • Kiekko-EspooAssatpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0
  • JukuritTPS Turkupreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.3
  • KarpatJokeritpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • LukkoHameenlinnapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:14.5
  • Vaasan SportPelicanspreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:24.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →