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SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Saturday, 14 November, (UTC+3)

Lulea — Farjestad

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Model prediction for 14 November

Lulea27%
Draw in regulation22%
Farjestad51%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Farjestad are clear favourites: 64% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.7 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 37%.

Why

  • Farjestad are more dangerous in attack: 2.7 expected goals against 2.0.

Facts

  • League table: Lulea — No. 7, 20 pts; Farjestad — No. 1, 39 pts. A gap of 19 pts.
  • Farjestad: 5 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Lulea 1 win, Farjestad 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Lulea — Farjestad2.0–2.7
Lulea to win (incl. OT and shootout)36%
Farjestad to win (incl. OT and shootout)64%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)37%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)63%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Lulea
  • Lulea goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Lulea

  • 31.10away · Timra3:2 SO
  • 29.10IF Bjorkloven4:0
  • 24.10Djurgarden2:3 OT
  • 22.10away · Vaxjo1:2
  • 17.10HV 715:2

Farjestad

  • 31.10away · Vaxjo5:1
  • 29.10away · Brynas5:4
  • 24.10Vaxjo4:1
  • 22.10away · Timra4:0
  • 17.10away · Linkoping4:2

Head to head

  • 15.10.2026Farjestad — Lulea2:1 SO
  • 14.03.2026Lulea — Farjestad1:3
  • 22.01.2026Farjestad — Lulea3:2 SO
  • 06.12.2025Lulea — Farjestad2:5
  • 16.10.2025Farjestad — Lulea3:6

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsFarjestad141211058–17+4139
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsSkelleftea14912252–31+2131
6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsOrebro14612533–41-822
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLulea14513536–37-120
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsDjurgarden15432633–41-820

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

SHL on the same day

  • HV 71Timrapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.8
  • MalmoVaxjopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.2
  • RogleFrolundapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • IF BjorklovenBrynaspreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.1
  • OrebroDjurgardenpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.1
  • SkellefteaLinkopingpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 117%Model's score: 4:15.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →