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SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Saturday, 14 November, (UTC+3)

Rogle — Frolunda

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Model prediction for 14 November

Rogle44%
Draw in regulation22%
Frolunda33%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Rogle are favourites: 56% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.8 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 40%.

Why

  • Rogle are more dangerous in attack: 2.6 expected goals against 2.2.

Facts

  • League table: Rogle — No. 5, 23 pts; Frolunda — No. 3, 31 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Rogle 4 wins, Frolunda 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Rogle — Frolunda2.6–2.3
Rogle to win (incl. OT and shootout)56%
Frolunda to win (incl. OT and shootout)44%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)40%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)60%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Rogle
  • Rogle goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Rogle

  • 31.10away · Orebro2:3 OT
  • 29.10Malmo0:3
  • 27.10away · Frolunda5:4
  • 24.10away · Brynas5:4 OT
  • 22.10Frolunda4:1

Frolunda

  • 31.10Linkoping4:1
  • 29.10away · Orebro2:3
  • 27.10Rogle4:5
  • 24.10away · HV 716:2
  • 22.10away · Rogle1:4

Head to head

  • 27.10.2026Frolunda — Rogle4:5
  • 22.10.2026Rogle — Frolunda4:1
  • 05.03.2026Frolunda — Rogle2:3 OT
  • 26.12.2025Rogle — Frolunda2:5
  • 28.10.2025Rogle — Frolunda2:0

Full record: 14 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsSkelleftea14912252–31+2131
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsFrolunda16920555–39+1631
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsMalmo14623345–33+1225
5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsRogle15621639–36+323
6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsOrebro14612533–41-822

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

SHL on the same day

  • HV 71Timrapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.8
  • MalmoVaxjopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.2
  • IF BjorklovenBrynaspreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.1
  • LuleaFarjestadpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.7
  • OrebroDjurgardenpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.1
  • SkellefteaLinkopingpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 117%Model's score: 4:15.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →